Ethereum ETF Demand Might Look Weak But Bitcoin Comparison Isn't Fair: JP Morgan

Spot Ethereum ETFs have gotten off to a rocky start, but drawing direct comparisons to Bitcoin’s much-hyped Wall Street debut isn’t all helpful, according to JP Morgan analysts.

After launching July 23, nine investment vehicles for crypto’s second largest coin weathered $476 million in cumulative net outflows through August. Meanwhile, the asset’s price dropped 30% from around $3,400 to $2,400, crashing to its lowest price since February.

Compared to January’s launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the difference may be “startling,” analysts at the financial behemoth wrote in a note Friday. After the first full month of trading for spot Bitcoin ETFs, cumulative net inflows had swelled to $5.4 billion, lifting Bitcoin’s price above $50,000 for the first time in years.

But JP Morgan analysts admit that comparing the performance of Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs isn't an entirely fair proposition. The described several reasons for such a disparity in flows, including Bitcoin’s established reputation as a “store of value.” Because spot Ethereum ETFs don’t benefit from staking rewards, the products also don’t reflect Ethereum’s full value.

“Comparing the magnitude of the ETH flows with its BTC counterparts is somewhat like comparing apples to oranges,” they wrote, underscoring a disparity in the assets’ respective market capitalizations, use cases, and opportunity costs.

At the same time, the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs mirrors Bitcoin’s initial run in some ways. When comparing the value of assets under management (AUM) in ETFs relative to each coin’s market capitalization, analysts wrote they “are performing more in-line than it initially seems.”

Bitcoin’s total value is more than three times that of Ethereum’s at $1 trillion and $280 billion, respectively. When looking at each group of ETFs’ first full trading month, the AUM of spot Bitcoin ETFs represented 3% of Bitcoin’s market cap, while Ethereum ETFs totaled 2.3%.

The launch of spot Ethereum ETFs signified an unexpected win for the crypto industry, as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) abruptly approved the class of products. Since then, institutions like BlackRock have benefited from a $1 billion burst of initial inflows.

For the most part, outflows from Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) have loomed over the launch of such products. The $4.1 billion investment vehicle has seen $2.6 billion in cumulative net outflows since July 23, consistently bleeding assets while other ETFs try to hold the line. 

Analysts have pointed to the ETHE’s high expense ratio as part of the reason for outflows. Additionally, experts have attributed a large part of the ETF’s outflows to traders capitalizing on the disappearance of the fund’s once-sizable discount relative to its Ethereum holding.

Over the past five trading days, six of the nine spot Ethereum ETFs have seen flows completely subside, remaining flat in either direction. Meanwhile, JP Morgan analysts wrote that trading volumes for spot Bitcoin ETFs are averaging six times that of their Ethereum-based counterparts.

Edited by Andrew Hayward