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Tools of disruption: With no viable worldwide alternatives to the undersea cable and GPS networks, the West remains highly vulnerable if Russia opts to leverage these systems as bargaining chips or as a means of sabotage. NATO is taking the threat seriously and is setting up backups as geopolitical tensions with Russia remain high over the ongoing Ukraine conflict. But experts suggest that more needs to be done.
NATO is sounding the alarm about a potential threat from Russia to disrupt vital communication and navigation systems. It warns that Russia may already have plans in place to target undersea fiber optic cables and scramble GPS signals as retaliation for Western support of Ukraine.
Particularly vulnerable is the vast network of undersea telecommunications cables that now span around 745,000 miles and facilitate a whopping 95% of global internet traffic – including calls, financial transactions, and video streaming. Any significant damage could wipe out internet connectivity across large regions.
According to Robert Dover, an international security professor at Hull University, who spoke to Business Insider, these cables have long been seen as potential military targets, dating back to the Cold War era when the US and Soviet Union closely monitored them. This threat is being renewed now.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies reports that Russian spy ships and submarines have been loitering suspiciously close to undersea cable routes. In response, a concerned NATO has stepped up maritime patrols in key areas like the coast of Ireland.
Using the act of damaging internet infrastructure as a weapon may have already happened. In 2023, damage to a Baltic Sea cable disrupted telecommunications between Sweden and Estonia for a period. While Russia denied involvement, Swedish officials stated the cable was struck by an "external force or tampering."
Even if Russia wasn't involved, the country's deputy Security Council chairman Dmitry Medvedev in June warned of such actions following perceived Western sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline last year.
"If we proceed from the proven complicity of Western countries in blowing up the Nord Streams, then we have no constraints – even moral – left to prevent us from destroying the ocean floor cable communications of our enemies," he stated bluntly on Telegram.
Compounding concerns, Russia is also suspected of interfering with GPS systems used for aviation. In April, flights between Helsinki and Tartu were grounded for a month due to scrambled GPS signals, believed to be Russian electronic warfare tactics.
"Russia has long been developing this capability and it is currently a cheap and effective way of malicious gray-zone interference," Melanie Garson, an international security expert at University College London, told Business Insider.
The airline industry is heavily dependent on GPS guidance for routing and landing aircraft safely. While airplanes have backup navigation capabilities, disrupted GPS can still create dangerous situations.
Russia has further enhanced its electronic warfare skills throughout the war, remotely scrambling the GPS coordinates used by missiles and drones. Some analysts believe these disruptions in Northern Europe may be Russia sending a warning signal to NATO countries.
For its part, NATO has begun implementing automatic alert systems to detect undersea cable interference and re-route traffic via satellite if needed. However, Garson says much more needs to be done to safeguard these critical infrastructures and develop resilient backups.
Inline image credit: Galileo GNSS