US stock futures plodded along Wednesday as Wall Street awaited a key signal on consumer prices that is set to help shape the near-term future of interest-rate policy. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F), the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NQ=F), and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) all hovered around the flatline.
All eyes were looking toward the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July. Economists expect consumer prices to have risen by 3% over the last year, which would be unchanged from June. On a month-over-month basis, expectations are for a 0.2% increase after a surprise decline in June prices.
Wall Street rallied Tuesday on the back of positive inflation data that could foreshadow a similar direction in consumer prices. The Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale inflation in the US economy, rose just 2.2% year-over-year in July, nearly in line with the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
The number is sure to confirm — or swing — expectations for near-term Fed policy. Even the most hawkish members of the Fed are signaling they need just a bit more good data to be ready to cut. More signs of cooling inflation, combined with a cooling job market, would likely leave the Fed positioned for a rate cut at its September meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are aligned on a Fed cut next month — the question is by how much. Just over half of bets are on a bigger, 50 basis point cut, while the rest remain on a 25-point cut.