Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s bull market is already underway, driven by a new wave of dollar and yuan liquidity tied to AI, military spending, and infrastructure. The BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO says governments in the US and China are loosening credit due to three forces: the AI arms race, military escalation, and a shift away from just-in-time supply chains.
AI infrastructure is now a national-security priority in both Washington and Beijing, Hayes argues, making monetary restraint politically difficult. He says the AI buildout is moving beyond tech company cash flows into the credit channel, pressuring banks and central banks to support capital expenditure for data centers and energy.
In his essay “The Butterfly Touch,” Hayes says the bull market began when the US attacked Iran on February 28th. He expects Bitcoin to reach $126,000, calling it a foregone conclusion, and identifies $90,000 as a key level for rally intensification. Hayes says Maelstrom will take its portfolio to maximum risk unless conditions change.
Hayes also argues that US-Iran conflict and commodity disruptions could push countries outside the US to redirect capital from Treasuries into defense, energy, and infrastructure, prompting US policymakers to keep financial conditions easier. He is already long Hyperliquid’s HYPE and Zcash’s ZEC, and says NEAR is his next preferred trade.
Bitcoin currently trades at $80,680.