Bitcoin (BTC) faces renewed volatility this week, trading near $62,500 as traders analyze conflicting market signals.
A new "death cross" on the weekly chart has formed, a technical pattern that historically precedes the end of a bear market. This occurs as the 50-week moving average crosses below the 100-week average.
Some traders argue this signal indicates a bottom is forming. However, historical analysis suggests bear markets typically last longer, with the current one considered approximately 70% complete.
Macro headwinds are intensifying. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping lane, pushing WTI crude oil above $75 per barrel. This has lifted inflation expectations and U.S. Treasury yields.
The Federal Reserve's policy is in focus. Chair Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress this week, coinciding with key Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged until September.
On-chain data shows significant selling from midsize Bitcoin holders (100-1,000 BTC). This cohort distributed 67,000 BTC on July 13, its largest sell-off since February. Historically, such distribution has preceded price rebounds.
