Bitcoin's recent surge past $80,000 was primarily fueled by leveraged futures traders, not U.S. spot buyers, according to CryptoQuant data. The Coinbase Premium, a key indicator of U.S. institutional demand, has remained negative since late April, signaling that offshore traders are driving the price action. This divergence persisted through a 5% rally that saw Bitcoin top $82,000 before retreating below $80,000.
On-chain metrics confirm lingering weakness in spot demand. CryptoQuant's apparent demand metric, while improving from -91,000 BTC in April to -11,000 BTC, remains negative. The analysts warn the rally resembles a relief bounce rather than a new accumulation phase, drawing parallels to March 2022 when Bitcoin rallied 43% before reversing. They identify $70,000 as the key support level-the average cost basis for short-term traders-if the current uptrend falters.