Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted return has fallen to a historic level that has preceded every bear-market bottom in the past decade.
The Sharpe ratio, which measures return against volatility, dropped to -20 on June 11. This threshold marked the cycle lows of 2015, 2018-19, and 2022-23.
However, the metric previously signaled the start of a long base rather than an immediate rebound, staying below the line for three to five months before a durable recovery began.
On-chain data confirms heavy accumulation. Wallets with a history of holding took in approximately 125,000 BTC in the first half of June. Exchange reserves have fallen roughly 80,000 BTC since February, and whales pulled more than 11,000 Bitcoin off exchanges in a single day.
Today’s FOMC decision, Kevin Warsh’s first as chair, is the next immediate test. With a rate hold fully priced in, the market’s direction hinges on the new dot plot and Warsh’s tone on inflation.