Bitcoin is trading at $65,000 to $66,500, well above a structural floor identified near $48,000 by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model aggregates economic signals from dormant coins moving on-chain to estimate a valuation floor. Adler’s analysis points to $48,000 as that cycle bottom, with $60,000 acting as a new accumulation zone. Bitcoin has already tested below $60,000 earlier in 2026.
The realized price, the average cost basis for all Bitcoin, sits near $53,600. Historically, trading below this level has signaled deep value and preceded generational lows. The CVDD model successfully flagged cycle bottoms in 2015, the 2018-2019 downturn, the March 2020 COVID crash, and the post-FTX capitulation in 2022.
CryptoQuant reports the largest weekly demand reduction since January 2022, coinciding with the unraveling of the last bull market. The firm has cautioned that a true capitulation event has yet to occur. A sustained break below the realized price would put the average holder underwater, a condition that historically triggers the panic selling that forms absolute bottoms. Until that capitulation materializes, models forecasting it are predicting an event that remains absent.