CryptoQuant has issued a report warning that Bitcoin’s current demand pattern closely resembles early 2022, a period that preceded a prolonged bear market. The key distinction: the 20% surge in April was fueled by perpetual futures contracts, not by organic spot market demand.
That rally was sparked by geopolitical developments, including de-escalation signals in the Middle East and comments from U.S. President Trump on a potential ceasefire. Crude oil futures dropped, and risk assets, including crypto, jumped. But analysts caution the underlying tensions remain unresolved.
Market data now shows skepticism about Bitcoin reaching $86,000 by May 2, with prediction markets pricing only a 0.1% chance. Ethereum, by contrast, shows strong confidence above $1,900.
Investors should watch for shifts in futures versus spot demand, as well as any new developments in the Middle East. Statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or BlackRock CEO Larry Fink could also move markets.