Bitcoin's price may be on the verge of a rebound, potentially reaching $85,000. This optimism stems from a notable shift in positioning by large speculators on the CME, often referred to as 'smart money.'
In the past month, these sophisticated traders have drastically reduced their bearish bets on Bitcoin. This sentiment reversal mirrors patterns observed in 2025, which preceded a 70% rally, and in 2023, when Bitcoin surged over 190% following similar market conditions.
Data from the CFTC Commitment of Traders report reveals that non-commercial Bitcoin futures traders have moved from a net short position to a net long one. This indicates that institutional investors like hedge funds are now more bullish than bearish on Bitcoin futures traded on the CME.
Analyst Tom McClellan highlighted that this rapid unwinding of short positions suggests a determined accumulation of long positions by 'smart money.' He pointed to two past instances where similar swings in futures positioning preceded significant Bitcoin price bottoms.
Currently, Bitcoin is defending its 200-week exponential moving average, a level that has historically acted as a floor during major market downturns. The weekly relative strength index (RSI) also remains in oversold territory, suggesting that selling pressure may be waning.
A decisive bounce from the 200-week EMA could propel Bitcoin towards the 100-week EMA, a target of approximately $85,000 by April.
However, caution is advised. This shift in 'smart money' sentiment is described as a condition, not an immediate buy signal. There remains a possibility of further price declines before a durable low is established, potentially mirroring a scenario in 2022 where Bitcoin saw a significant drop after breaking below its 200-week EMA.