Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive weeks of net inflows, reversing early 2026 when $3.8 billion in outflows stemmed from US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
A ceasefire extension announced by former President Trump on April 17, 2026, eased geopolitical risks, prompting institutional investors like BlackRock and Fidelity to reassess their outlook and return to the market.
Despite the inflow streak, prediction markets remain skeptical. Polymarket shows only a 0.1% probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by the end of April, down from 3% yesterday and 58% last week.
Key factors to watch: further US-Iran developments, regulatory moves from the SEC, and central bank policy shifts that could influence institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin.