Investors pulled $635 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single day, the largest outflow since January. The trigger: escalating Middle East tensions, including a Hormuz blockade and a U.S.-Iran stalemate.

The move reflects institutional de-risking, not a loss of faith in Bitcoin. A brief rally followed a White House ceasefire announcement, but skepticism over conflict resolution quickly reversed the flow.

Markets now see lower odds for Bitcoin hitting $76,000 to $78,000 by May 14, dropping from 24% to just 5% in a week. All eyes remain on geopolitical developments and major players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy.