Prediction market traders are increasingly bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, pricing strong odds of further declines. On Myriad, a platform operated by Decrypt parent Dastan, the chance of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000 before any rally to $80,000 now stands at 77%; Ethereum’s probability of reaching $1,500 before $3,000 has climbed to 88%.
Bitcoin has fallen to $59,511, down 1% on the day and 23% over the past month, dipping near $58,000 earlier Thursday-its lowest since 2024. The selloff is mirrored in traditional equities: Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, fell another 7% to trade around $88, bringing its one-month decline to nearly 45%. Its preferred equity, STRC, designed to trade near $100 par value, dropped to $77, having hit an all-time low of $73.62.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says STRC is now “the tail wagging the Bitcoin dog.” He warns that if Strategy fails to clarify its approach, the market may fear a forced Bitcoin sale that could spiral. Hougan adds that Ethereum is “caught in the crossfire” of these concerns.
On Kalshi, longer-term probability markets give Bitcoin a 36% chance of falling below $40,000 and Ethereum a 34% chance of dipping under $1,000 in 2026. Bitcoin sits 53% below its all-time high of $126,080; Ethereum is 68% off its peak of $4,946.