Bitcoin has reclaimed ground near $70,000 after a sharp drop to around $67,000. However, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode warns that the recovery lacks the necessary demand to sustain itself.
Glassnode's latest report, 'Awaiting Liquidity,' notes that while several pressure points have eased-such as sell-side intensity and ETF outflows-the market remains fragile. Muted spot volumes, subdued leverage, and significant overhead supply indicate that the market is not ready for a high-conviction breakout.
A new accumulation cluster is forming around current levels, but the base of buyers is modest. Above the market, resistance is heavy, with a significant supply cluster between $93,000 and $97,000. This could trigger renewed sell pressure on any sustained recovery.
The on-chain data shows relative unrealized losses stabilizing above 15% of market cap, similar to the fear seen in Q2 2022. Realized profitability has also thinned dramatically, falling from $3 billion per day in July 2025 to below $100 million now.
Spot market activity remains muted, suggesting the recent rebound is driven more by selective dip-buying and short-term repositioning rather than broad-based demand. ETF flows have shown slight improvement, but the scale is limited compared to previous accumulation phases.
Derivatives markets reflect caution, with negative perpetual funding rates and subdued futures open interest. While options markets are not flashing acute stress, they lack strong upside conviction.
A major variable is the upcoming options expiry on Friday, with around $10 billion of short gamma positioning set to roll off. After this, Bitcoin may become more sensitive to broader macro and liquidity conditions.
To break through, Bitcoin needs to surpass $74,500.