Onchain data tracking Bitcoin's investor profitability has reverted to the long-term average, signaling a potential valuation reset. Concurrently, crypto exchange order flow reveals a decrease in aggressive selling. The spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) has shown a marginal increase, despite a drop in spot trading volume.
These shifts are influencing expectations for the return of stronger spot demand for Bitcoin and the possibility of a trend reversal.
The Bitcoin market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has normalized after recent extremes. This metric compares market capitalization to realized capitalization to gauge investor profitability. A compression toward the long-term mean suggests valuations are approaching levels that have historically offered improved risk-reward, though Bitcoin has not yet entered significantly undervalued territory.
Realized capitalization, which measures Bitcoin's total value based on the price at which each coin last moved onchain, has fallen from its peak. The 30-day change indicates sustained capital outflows, with coins acquired three to six months ago now representing a significant portion of the supply, many of which are currently underwater.
These signals collectively point to a defensive phase for Bitcoin holders. The absence of large-scale capitulation, combined with a lack of new capital inflows reversing the realized cap trend, suggests a neutral to defensive stance.
Exchange flow data supports this observation. The spot cumulative volume delta has improved, indicating a reduction in aggressive selling. Spot trading volume has decreased, suggesting thinner participation and choppier price action.
Historically, sharp CVD drawdowns during price declines have coincided with local bottom formations once selling pressure stabilized. Bitcoin holding its current price range, alongside a flattening CVD, may signal that supply is being absorbed more efficiently, especially if spot participation begins to recover.