Bitcoin has triggered another daily Kumo breakout, reviving a historically bullish technical signal. Analyst Josh Olszewicz, known as CarpeNoctom, charted BTC's forward performance after every daily Kumo breakout since 2015, revealing substantial average returns over longer time frames.
One week after breakout, BTC was higher in 22 of 26 cases, with an average gain of 6.21%. One month out, positive in 20 of 26 cases, averaging 14.05%. Three months: 18 of 26 cases, average gain 39.48%. Six months: 22 of 26 cases, average return 74.36%. The one-year data is striking: higher in 22 of 25 cases, average gain 186.01%, median gain 129.46%.
Not all signals succeed. During weak or late-cycle periods, breakouts produced negative returns. The Aug. 13, 2021 breakout led to a 48.89% annual decline. The Oct. 1, 2025 signal showed initial gains but turned negative after one month, falling 43.74% six months out.
The pattern is historically asymmetric near meaningful upside continuation, but failure clusters around broader market deterioration. At press time, BTC traded at $80,735.
