Houthi rebels have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint, threatening approximately 60% of Middle East oil exports. This action compounds the simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, creating a dual threat to global seaborne energy transport.
The closure poses significant risks to global supply chains and could trigger major economic repercussions. Market analysts now assign an 18.5% probability to the strait remaining effectively closed through September 30, a sharp increase from 8% just one week ago.
Key actors to monitor include Houthi Leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi and the IRGC. The situation remains fluid, with potential for rapid escalation or de-escalation depending on military responses and diplomatic interventions.