Bitcoin's near-term fate is tied directly to geopolitical developments, with analysts warning that a breakdown in US-Iran peace talks could trigger sharp volatility.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, stated that while Bitcoin recently reclaimed $67,000, its recovery lacks conviction. Declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics suggest the bounce could quickly fade.
President Donald Trump announced a peace deal with Iran will be signed Friday. The agreement intends to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade of Iranian ports. This will be followed by 60 days of negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions relief.
If the deal collapses, Ruck believes Bitcoin may initially find bids as a geopolitical hedge before broader risk-off flows push it toward key support zones.
Swissblock data underscores the weakness. Price momentum and on-balance volume remain in a negative regime typical of a bear market. Price momentum is stuck at -1, while on-balance volume has hit a multi-year low of -1.7 million.
Swissblock analysts noted that historically, a stronger recovery signal only arrives when both metrics flip positive. Until then, the risk of retesting recent lows persists. Bitcoin had already dipped below $66,000 in early Tuesday trading.