Bitcoin saw a modest recovery to start May, but the flagship cryptocurrency still faces the threat of a deeper downturn. According to on-chain data, if another sell-off occurs, Bitcoin may not establish a local floor until it reaches as low as $43,000.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez posted on X that Bitcoin's price may not have found a local bottom yet. His analysis uses the MVRV Pricing Bands, which compare market value to realized value to identify overvalued or undervalued conditions. Martinez noted that Bitcoin has historically bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV bands, a pattern in place since 2010.
Currently, the 1.0 MVRV Band sits at $54,145 and the 0.8 MVRV Band at $43,316. Martinez said these bands could contain Bitcoin's price during a macro sell-off. Cycles that fail to revisit these accumulation zones often remain vulnerable to deeper pullbacks before establishing a long-term base.
In a separate post, Martinez noted that Bitcoin is forming a structure similar to 2022. If history repeats, the market could see one more push higher, but that rally may not be sustainable and could be followed by a final leg down.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at approximately $77,933, up 2% on the day.