Bitcoin is struggling to break above $80,000, with capital inflows into the market remaining well below levels seen in previous bull runs. According to Glassnode's latest report, Bitcoin's 30-day realized cap net position change rose to $2.8 billion per month, supporting the recovery from April's lows near $65,000. However, the pace of new capital entering the market is significantly slower than during the 2023-2025 rally, raising doubts about a sustained breakout above the $80,000-$82,000 range.
A growing cluster of holders who accumulated Bitcoin near $86,900 between November and February are now approaching breakeven. These investors could sell near their entry price after extended drawdowns, creating a large overhead supply zone that may stall any rally.
Short-term buyers continue to support the market around $76,900, the average cost basis for coins acquired over the past 30 days. This indicates fresh demand is still entering at lower levels, even as overhead supply is concentrated near $87,000.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. reports buying activity across spot and futures markets has started to cool. The 30-day net taker volume indicator dropped to +1.25 from +2.0 on May 6, showing buyer pressure has fallen roughly 35% from last week. Meanwhile, the 30-day Bitcoin funding rate has remained negative since March, indicating bears still dominate futures activity. Adler says a return to positive funding rates would be the first sign of renewed bullish positioning.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson adds that Bitcoin still needs stronger money flows before a larger bull market can begin. His Realized Cap Impulse metric remains slightly below zero, showing fresh capital inflows have not yet returned to levels typical of stronger breakout phases.