Bitcoin surged to $76,000-reviving optimism-but onchain metrics show no definitive bull market confirmation. Glassnode identifies a relatively open price zone between $72,000 and $82,000, defined by the UTXO Realized Price Distribution.

- Figure 1 -
- Figure 1 -

The share of Bitcoin supply in profit has rebounded to 60%-consistent with early recovery-not yet the 75% threshold Glassnode views as a reliable bull signal.

Short-term holders are realizing profits rapidly at $18.4 million per hour above $74,000-a pattern that previously capped rallies. Sustained support above $70,000 would improve odds of testing $78,000-$82,000.

- Figure 2 -
- Figure 2 -

Higher-timeframe charts still show lower highs and lower lows. A confirmed bullish structure requires a decisive, sustained break above $97,855-the last lower high-and consolidation above that level.

- Figure 3 -
- Figure 3 -

CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Cycle indicator remains bearish at -0.72. A move above 1-and first crossing its 365-day moving average at -0.23-would mark a structural shift.