Bitcoin’s market bottom may be approaching as early as next month, according to Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin. This projection is based on Bitcoin’s price performance when measured against gold, offering a different timeline than dollar-denominated analysis.
While Bitcoin’s peak against the U.S. dollar occurred in October 2025, historical cycles suggest a downturn could extend into late 2026. However, Bitcoin's high against gold was in January 2025. Applying the typical 12- to 13-month bear market pattern to the gold-denominated price points to a potential bottom around February 2026, with a recovery anticipated to begin in March.
This divergence is influenced by global macroeconomic factors, including trade tariffs, domestic disputes, and geopolitical tensions, which have increased global uncertainty and benefited gold. Significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have also contributed to market pressure. Despite this, large investors, or "whales," are reportedly using the downturn as an accumulation period. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments, for instance, increased their exposure to spot Bitcoin ETFs in mid-February.
Szuster advises investors to adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy to capitalize on current market fear and mitigate timing risks. Historically, buying during periods of fear has proven more effective than during euphoria, suggesting that investors are currently in a zone where optimal average prices can be established.