Surging oil prices and geopolitical tensions are reigniting inflation fears, prompting U.S. rate traders to reconsider the timing of Federal Reserve policy shifts.
The probability of a rate hike at the April meeting has climbed to 12%, up from zero just one week prior-marking a dramatic reversal from earlier expectations of cuts.
Inflation remains elevated, with February data showing headline inflation at 2.4% and core at 2.5%, exacerbated by a 50% spike in oil prices following regional conflict.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.38%, while U.K. gilts breached 5%-their highest since 2008.
Bitcoin, trading near $70,000, continues to outperform most assets since the crisis began-though gold dipped 2% Friday. Analysts say it’s acting as a macro early warning system, already pricing in a recession while equities lag.
Meanwhile, Coinbase expands globally with perpetual stock futures for non-U.S. users, offering 10x leverage on single stocks and 20x on ETFs via USDC cash settlement.