The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note hit 5% early today, the highest since July 2025. That level has been tested only twice in the past two decades, prompting a terse 'Ouch' from macro commentator Holger Zschaeptiz.
Analysts see this as a headwind for Bitcoin, which traded at $75,670, down 2% in 24 hours. 'As long as yields remain attractive and Fed policy stays tight, capital has a real alternative to risk,' said Diana Pires of sFOX, a crypto prime dealer.
A 30-year Treasury yielding 5% is nearly risk-free. Every dollar in Bitcoin is a dollar not earning that return, leading to capital rotation out of non-yielding assets. Gold also fell over 1% to $4,540.
The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, but three of 12 voting officials dissented against easing language. ING called this a 'warning shot' at incoming Chair Kevin Warsh.
Oil prices surged, with Brent topping $125 per barrel, lifting inflation expectations and pushing yields higher. 'For crypto, the macro backdrop remains a headwind, not a tailwind,' Pires added.