Crypto analyst Ben Cowen, Founder and CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, suggests a low probability of Bitcoin’s current cycle bottoming out, estimating it at only 25%. Drawing on extensive historical data and market analysis, Cowen indicates that further declines are more likely than a sustained recovery.
Cowen highlights that bear markets often exhibit upward trends before significant downturns, complicating navigation for both bulls and bears. Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed below its realized price, a critical level investors should monitor. He posits that a drop to the $30,000-$50,000 range would signal a more convincing market bottom.
A potential 70% price drop for Bitcoin aligns with patterns observed in previous bear markets, a scenario Cowen finds statistically plausible. He also anticipates Bitcoin breaking below the $60,000 level later this year, though he suggests this dip may be short-lived.
Furthermore, Cowen considers a new all-time high for Bitcoin this year highly unlikely. He points to a significant decline in social interest and retail participation in cryptocurrency since 2021 as a key indicator of shifting market dynamics.