Colonel MacGregor has warned that a ground invasion of Iran would be costly and risky, emphasizing Tehran's defensive readiness. His remarks have decreased the odds of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to 8%, down from 26% just a week prior.
The April 15 market currently stands at 18% YES, reflecting skepticism about a near-term truce. Traders are watching for a mid-April catalyst after a sharp 20-point shift between April 15 and April 30.
Market data shows $1.36 million in USDC traded in 24 hours, with the largest movement occurring on April 30. It costs $15,138 to move April 7 odds by 5 points, suggesting moderate liquidity.
The ceasefire markets remain pessimistic without diplomatic progress. A YES share at 8¢ offers a 12.5x return if resolved, signaling strong bets on rapid diplomacy.
Watch for President Trump’s April 1 address, which may influence rhetoric or reveal involvement from mediators such as Oman or Qatar. Confirmed negotiations could dramatically shift the odds.