Ethereum's Relative Strength Index, a key momentum gauge, has fallen to its lowest level ever. The RSI dropped to between 17 and 25 on June 6. Readings below 30 are considered oversold, and below 20 is extremely rare.
Ethereum is trading between $1,569 and $1,778, a dramatic decline from its August 2025 peak near $4,946. That is a drawdown of roughly 64%.
Exchange balances have also plummeted to 14.8 million ETH, the lowest since 2016.
History shows that similarly oversold conditions have led to major recoveries. In early 2024, ETH bottomed near $2,150 and rallied about 86% to nearly $4,000. The FTX crash and COVID crash also produced deep oversold readings that preceded strong rebounds.
For long-term investors, this combination of a steep drawdown, record-low RSI, and low exchange balances has historically been a signal for eventual upside. Key signs to watch: RSI reclaiming the 30 level, stable or falling exchange balances, and rising volume on green trading days.