Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF, $MSBT, has surpassed $100 million in inflows during its initial week, marking the firm's most successful ETF launch to date.
This strong performance has bolstered trader confidence on prediction markets, with increased odds for Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. The market for Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by the end of 2026 now stands at 37.5%, up from 34% a week prior. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the same date is currently 10.5%.
Traders show growing conviction for a new Bitcoin all-time high by September 30, 2026, with odds rising to 10% from 6%. The highest confidence remains for a new record by December 31, 2026, at 17.5%, suggesting potential year-end catalysts.
Despite geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure remains robust. The success of Morgan Stanley's ETF launch amid these conditions highlights sustained investor interest. Future catalysts to monitor include Federal Reserve policy shifts and significant corporate announcements that could influence institutional appetite for Bitcoin and its related investment products.