Bitcoin's wild price swings have calmed dramatically, with volatility dropping from a high of 120 in 2021 to roughly 35 today. Trace Mayer, creator of the Mayer Multiple, says this is a sign of strength, not weakness.
Mayer attributes the shift to massive institutional adoption and the growing sophistication of the options market. As institutions sell covered calls against their bitcoin holdings, market makers hedge by selling when prices rise, creating a natural ceiling on volatility.
"In order to get that buy-in, you have to have something that's really boring, like gold," Mayer said. "Gold is so boring-and that's what we need."
The Mayer Multiple, which divides bitcoin's price by its 200-day moving average, currently sits at 0.94, just below the long-term trend. Standard deviation bands have compressed significantly, reflecting a more mature asset.
Mayer remains bullish on bitcoin over gold for the next 15 years, citing its fixed supply of 21 million coins versus gold's potential for new supply from asteroid mining or AI-driven ocean recovery.