Former President Donald Trump has hinted at secret diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire with Iran, raising questions about potential de-escalation. Market forecasts show sharp skepticism: the probability of a deal by April 7 has dropped to 8%, down from 26% last week.
Traders are focusing on later dates, with the likelihood of a ceasefire by April 30 rising to 38% and extending to 73.5% by year-end. Daily trading volume in USDC on prediction markets exceeds $1.37 million, with small orders moving markets significantly.
The absence of official confirmation from U.S. or Iranian officials leaves the initiative speculative. Observers are watching for signals from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, including envoy appointments or formal talk dates.
While Trump’s remarks originate from unverified channels, they may reflect behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Investors are pricing in a longer timeline for resolution.