The United States and Iran are reportedly on the verge of signing a one-page memorandum to end ongoing conflicts. The agreement, facilitated by US envoys and Pakistani intermediaries, could lead to lifting sanctions and removing blockades.
Key sticking points include the duration of uranium enrichment, removal of highly enriched uranium, and sanction relief. A 15-day ceasefire was already reached in early April, allowing transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The shift away from military actions--like suspending "Operation Liberty"--marks a turn toward diplomacy, though disagreements persist on asset unfreezing and enrichment terms.
Market indicators reflect optimism: Polymarket odds of Israel closing its airspace by May 8 dropped to 2.1%, down from 8% in 24 hours. The chance of closure by May 31 now sits at 23.5%, down from 36%.