The United States and Israel conducted a military strike targeting Iran on February 28, 2026, escalating regional tensions. Bitcoin dropped roughly 6% to $63,038, triggering $515 million in long position liquidations. Prices have since stabilized in the mid-$60,000 range.

Analysts warn that further disruption could occur if the Strait of Hormuz is affected, potentially impacting global oil flows and market sentiment.

Prediction markets now show only a 0.1% chance of Bitcoin reaching $94,000 by early May, and a 4.2% probability of hitting $200,000 by the end of 2026-both down from previous levels.