Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas says Bitcoin has entered the final stage of its current four-year cycle, but warns the market may still need another leg lower before a durable bottom is in place.
Loukas framed Bitcoin’s recent retest of its February lows as a largely expected development. He argued the rebound into May, when price approached the low-$80,000 range, looked like a countertrend move inside a broader bear-market structure.
Despite maintaining that Bitcoin may not have completed its cycle low, Loukas said his model portfolio made its first buy in three and a half years, adding 10 BTC at $65,000. The portfolio is now roughly 58% Bitcoin and 41% cash.
Loukas said the key level now is $53,000. If Bitcoin reaches that area, he plans to use remaining cash to return to a full Bitcoin allocation. He acknowledged $53,000 may appear severe, but argued it is not extreme in Bitcoin terms, representing only another 15% decline from current levels.
Loukas said Bitcoin is oversold enough to bounce, possibly toward the 10-week moving average near $73,000, before resuming lower. At press time, BTC traded at $62,247.
