On-chain analyst Willy Woo says Bitcoin must convincingly hold above key price levels to signal the end of its current bearish phase.
Woo told his 1.2 million followers on X that Bitcoin could go parabolic if it breaks through the next major resistance level at $79,000-the average cost basis of recent investors.
This cost basis model estimates the average price short-term holders paid for their coins, often used to spot entry and exit points.
"The next test is cleanly breaking $79,000. I give it 30% odds on this attempt. If Bitcoin stays above $65,000 and doesn't break down, the chances of a structural bottom increase significantly," Woo said.
Woo adds that historically, flipping $79,000 into support signals the end of bear markets, marked by three events: a clean break above recent investor cost basis, a surge in buying pressure, and a rising cost basis line.
Bitcoin is trading at $76,237, down 1.3% on the day.