Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's Speech Awaited as Yen Holds Steady

The Japanese yen is trading in a narrow range against its G-10 peers as markets await Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech at the Kisaragi-kai Meeting on June 3.

The BOJ's April 28 decision to hold rates at 0.75% was split 6-3, the widest margin under Ueda. Three board members pushed for a hike, fueling speculation a move to 1% could come as soon as June.

Japan conducted a yen-buying intervention estimated at up to $35 billion in late April and early May. The USD/JPY pair traded near 155-160, but the yen quickly gave back its gains.

The 2.8% core inflation forecast for fiscal 2026, driven by energy disruptions from geopolitical tensions, gives the BOJ room to sound hawkish. With inflation well above the 2% target and rates at just 0.75%, the case for tightening is credible.

Investors should watch Ueda's June 3 speech for signals on the pace and timing of rate adjustments, the BOJ's inflation outlook, and any commentary on yen valuations. The 6-3 split signals the BOJ is closer to moving than expected.