Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says the global oil market recovery will stretch into 2027, driven by sustained supply disruptions.
A key factor: Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the critical chokepoint has fallen to just 2 to 5 vessels a day, down from the typical 70. The move is one of several flashpoints in the ongoing geopolitical standoff involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
Aramco has managed to reroute some exports via the Red Sea pipeline, maintaining 60 to 70 percent of normal export levels. Still, the threat to global supply remains significant.
Market odds on prediction platforms reflect the uncertainty: WTI crude hitting $110 by May 2026 is priced at 49%, while a $150 target sits at just 2.8%. Meanwhile, the chance of 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 is at 47%.