Emerging and developing economies in Europe and Central Asia face a significant economic slowdown this year, according to the World Bank. The conflict in the Middle East has driven up energy prices, impacting businesses and consumers. This scenario poses a substantial risk to the global economy.
The region, encompassing countries from Central Asia to the Balkans and Turkey, is largely comprised of energy importers. While energy exporters may see temporary benefits, most nations are expected to experience increased fiscal and current account pressure.
The World Bank now projects regional growth to slow to 2.1% in 2026, down from 2.6% in 2025. This revised forecast is a decrease from the previously anticipated 2.2% growth for the current year.
Russia's growth is forecast to decelerate to 0.8% despite higher oil and gas prices, constrained by Western sanctions. Ukraine's growth is also expected to slow. Turkey's economy faces headwinds from elevated energy and food costs, leading to a lowered growth outlook.
Polish growth is projected to decline as well, with both Turkey and Poland anticipated to grow at a slower pace compared to 2025.