The United States and Israel have launched coordinated military strikes targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, signaling a significant escalation in tensions. Odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 8%, down from 10% just yesterday.
The April 7 sub-market now stands at 8% YES. The April 15 market is at 18%, and April 30 has dropped to 38%. Traders expect continued hostilities through mid-April.
Markets reflect strong conviction, with over $1.3 million in USDC traded. A single $15,000 order can shift the April 7 odds by five points. The largest recent movement occurred on April 30, when a 4-point spike was recorded, likely due to a large trade.
Strikes on civilian infrastructure indicate the conflict is shifting beyond military targets toward economic destabilization. A ceasefire remains unlikely without key diplomatic intervention-such as talks or mediation from Oman or Qatar.
Major changes, including official statements from CENTCOM or shifts in regional diplomacy, could alter current odds.