While most investors braced for impact, Europe's biggest oil companies quietly printed money. Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, and Eni collectively pulled in approximately $4.75 billion in trading profits by riding the wild price swings that accompanied fears of a broader Middle Eastern conflict.
Crude oil spiked to $118 per barrel as tensions escalated, then cratered below $90 after Trump's remarks on potential military action shifted the market narrative.
How the Money Was Made
The profits didn't come from sitting on barrels and watching prices go up. These companies deployed sophisticated trading strategies built around derivatives and hedges, instruments designed to profit from volatility itself rather than just directional price moves.
Commodity Trading Advisors hit their maximum long positions on US oil for the first time since 2021, a signal that speculative money was pouring into crude at levels not seen in years.
A Tale of Two Markets
Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 5% as the Iran crisis rippled through global equity markets. Implied volatility spiked across asset classes. The euro slid to its lowest level against the US dollar since 2022.
Defense Spending Adds Another Layer
Defense contractors saw their own windfall, with Lockheed Martin securing a $4.7 billion US defense contract for missile systems during the same period.
What This Means for Investors
For anyone holding shares in Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, or Eni, the trading profits are unambiguously positive in the near term, often translating into share buybacks or dividend increases.
The risk to watch is regulation. The UK's windfall tax on energy profits, introduced in 2022, remains in place and could be expanded. France and Italy have their own versions.