The Federal Reserve has shifted its language, now describing inflation as "elevated" because of rising energy prices linked to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Traders see virtually no chance of a rate cut: prediction markets peg the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut after the April 2026 meeting at just 0.1%.
The Fed's hawkish stance suggests rate cuts are unlikely for the rest of 2026. If inflation persists, the door is open for potential rate hikes. Analysts warn this is a genuine policy shift, not a temporary blip. Buying YES shares at current prices would require a dramatic reversal in Fed policy or a sudden economic downturn to pay off.