The April 29 FOMC meeting recorded the highest number of dissenting votes since October 1992. The market for a 25 basis point cut after the April meeting sits at 0% YES despite Governor Stephen Miran’s call for a rate cut.
Market reaction
The dissent split in both directions. Miran pushed for easing, while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan opposed the easing bias and leaned hawkish. Odds for a 50+ bps cut also sit at 0% YES. Internal policy rift has not triggered significant shifts in odds.
Why it matters
This level of FOMC dissent hasn’t occurred in over 30 years. The split runs in opposite directions, with one governor wanting cuts and three officials resisting the easing bias, meaning the committee is not converging on any single path. That internal fracture could produce abrupt policy shifts if economic data changes meaningfully.
What to watch
At 0.1¢, a YES share on a 25 bps cut offers a massive potential payout, but it’s a bet against current policy signals. Unemployment and inflation data will be key as any large moves could reprice these markets fast.