Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500 an ounce to $4,900. The revision reflects growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2026, with potential easing now pushed to March or December 2027.
Commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven describe the outlook as structurally constructive but tactically cautious. They warn of near-term downside risks despite medium-term upside potential. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, challenging the easy money thesis that drove prices to record highs earlier this year.
This monetary tightening is also weighing on cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has fallen more than 28% since January amid persistent inflation and Middle East conflict. Market data indicates a high probability of rates remaining at current levels through the remainder of 2026. Analysts suggest risk appetite will only recover once inflation cools and liquidity conditions improve.