Goldman Sachs has issued a stark warning: escalating disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a supply shock, forcing a phase of demand destruction across global energy markets.
The strait, a critical artery for oil and LNG shipments, has experienced reduced tanker traffic amid rising regional tensions. Goldman's analysis suggests this bottleneck could drive prices higher as supply chains tighten.
This comes as prediction markets reflect declining confidence in a near-term price spike, with YES odds dropping for crude oil all-time high forecasts. However, the underlying risk of a significant supply disruption remains high.
Traders and policymakers are now watching OPEC's next move, along with any diplomatic shifts involving Iran. The potential for further escalation keeps energy markets on edge, balancing cautious pricing against the specter of a genuine supply crisis.