U.S. crude cargo prices have resisted recent spikes, unlike soaring prices in Europe and Asia, amid the ongoing Iran conflict. Analysts and traders point to releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and increased Venezuelan imports as key factors cushioning domestic supplies.
The war in Iran has disrupted global oil flows, particularly impacting the Strait of Hormuz. This has driven physical oil prices in Europe and the Middle East to record highs.
However, the U.S., as a major oil producer, has leveraged its reserves of medium, sour crude, favored by its refiners, along with recent Venezuelan imports. This combination has mitigated the impact of supply shocks.
Physical cargoes of U.S. Mars crude, a medium, sour grade, traded around $97 a barrel, a significant drop from earlier peaks. This contrasts with European physical oil prices nearing $150 per barrel and Middle Eastern benchmark Dubai crude at nearly $170 per barrel.
"U.S. refiners sit on the supply side of that equation and are price-setters, not price-takers in the current crisis," noted David Jorbenaze, global oil market leader at ICIS.
The U.S. is releasing approximately 172 million barrels from its SPR as part of an international effort to address shortages. "The SPR release feeds into markets where Mars is going to directly compete," explained Gus Vasquez, Argus Media Americas crude editor, stating that increased supply leads to downward price pressure.
Venezuelan crude imports to the U.S. have also risen, with refiners regaining access. In the first quarter, U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude averaged 295,000 barrels per day, a 14% year-over-year increase.
"The combination of SPR release, Venezuelan barrels, and high freight risk for Europeans and Asians is keeping a lid on the U.S. physical market," said Neil Crosby, analyst at Sparta Commodities. The region is reportedly well-supplied from a sour crude perspective.
Conversely, U.S. light-density, lower-sulfur WTI Midland delivered into Europe reached an all-time high of $22.80 over dated Brent, around $142 per barrel, as European refiners seek alternatives to lost Middle Eastern imports. "Mars is not usually exported as it's all consumed domestically, so the export-oriented WTI would be the one which has upside as there's more competition," stated Janiv Shah, Rystad Energy's vice president of oil markets analysis.