JP Morgan has revised its forecast for European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes. The firm now expects the ECB to implement a 25 basis point increase in June and again in September 2026. This replaces prior projections of hikes occurring in April and July of the same year.
This updated outlook effectively removes the possibility of a significant rate cut at the April meeting. JP Morgan's revised forecast indicates a continuation of gradual monetary tightening by the ECB, rather than an immediate reversal of policy.
Market indicators show minimal trader interest in a surprise rate cut at the upcoming April meeting. The odds for such a move remain extremely low, suggesting a general expectation of the ECB's cautious stance on inflation and its commitment to a measured approach to monetary policy.