JPMorgan’s influential trading desk has pivoted to an aggressively bullish position on US stocks, reversing a recent bearish warning. The catalyst is a ceasefire pact between the US, Israel, and Iran that has dissipated months of geopolitical anxiety.
Just weeks prior, the desk was bracing clients for a downturn, citing inflation and risks to the Strait of Hormuz-a critical artery for global crude oil. The ceasefire’s reopening of that chokepoint neutralized a major supply risk.
The desk maintained its optimistic stance even as Iranian negotiations stalled, and the bet paid off. Through May and June 2026, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied sharply on continued peace speculation and robust earnings forecasts. JPMorgan’s broader outlook supports double-digit equity gains for the year, contingent on declining rates and AI growth.