For nearly twenty years, US corporations engineered a net negative equity supply, aggressively repurchasing their own shares. JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou declares that era definitively over.
The bank projects US net equity issuance will reach roughly $200 billion in 2026, before exploding past $1.2 trillion in 2027. The catalyst is the monumental capital appetite of artificial intelligence.
From 2006 through 2025, total net US equity issuance was approximately negative $430 billion. The shift stems directly from AI infrastructure costs. Building massive data centers and acquiring specialized chips demands funding that internal cash flows cannot meet. Alphabet alone has signaled an $80 billion equity raise.
For investors, the implication is stark supply-and-demand math. The projected $1.3 trillion rise in share counts for 2027, factoring in lock-up expirations, means more equity competing for investment dollars. The buyback tailwind that inflated per-share metrics has reversed. Future earnings growth must now carry the full burden of justifying market valuations.