Kevin Warsh Expected to Be Confirmed as Fed Chair by Mid-May

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem expressed confidence in the continuity of U.S. Federal Reserve policy following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Warsh, a former Fed Governor, was nominated by President Donald Trump to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term concludes in May 2026. Macklem’s statement reflects an expectation that Warsh’s leadership will maintain the Fed’s current culture and approach.

Prediction markets are pricing in a 96% probability of Warsh’s confirmation by May 15. Meanwhile, the odds of Jerome Powell leaving the Fed Chair position by May 14 stand at just 1.6%, suggesting skepticism about an early departure. The Bank of Canada Governor’s endorsement reinforces existing market sentiment toward Warsh’s confirmation.

Attention now turns to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee and any procedural developments that could affect the timeline. Jerome Powell’s public statements or unexpected announcements could also shift market dynamics.