A British financier and confidant of Nigel Farage, George Cottrell, appears to have sustained substantial losses on the prediction market platform Polymarket. Reports indicate an account under Cottrell's name lost over $550,000 on a bet concerning whether the U.S. would strike Iran. The wager, betting against a U.S. strike by February 28, 2026, was lost when the U.S. conducted strikes on that date.
This same account also reportedly lost approximately $125,000 on a bet that Prime Minister Keir Starmer would be out of office by the same deadline. While these recent wagers resulted in losses, the account has accumulated significant profits, largely from a previous bet on Donald Trump winning the 2024 election.
Blockchain investigator ZachXBT has expressed high confidence that the account belongs to Cottrell, a longtime associate of Reform UK leader Farage. Cottrell has a history in high-stakes betting and finance, having been linked to a professional betting syndicate previously.
Polymarket, the platform used for these bets, is not licensed to operate in the UK, and the situation brings increased scrutiny to prediction markets globally. Regulators in several countries have taken a firm stance against such platforms, citing concerns similar to those raised about cryptocurrency donations to political parties.