US refiners are reporting record profit margins for gasoline and diesel production. The 3-2-1 crack spread surged to $69.66 per barrel in July, driven by severe supply disruptions linked to the Iran war. Critical shipping lanes, including the Strait of Hormuz, face significant pressure. This has pushed the national average gasoline price to $4.54 per gallon, a 52% increase from pre-conflict levels.
The market is pricing in a continued risk premium. Data shows a 12.5% probability that crude oil could hit a new all-time high by year-end. Traders are closely monitoring the situation, with key figures like OPEC's Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud central to any future supply decisions.
The outlook remains highly volatile. The ongoing conflict continues to exert upward pressure on crude and refined product prices, directly benefiting refiners' bottom lines.